The headline

Sales ticked up from last year’s slump: 700 homes changed hands in Q3 2025, totaling $441.5M (up 12.7% and 16.6% year-over-year). Good news—but mostly because 2024 was so weak. Monthly sales stayed below the 10-year average all year, and 2025 is still the second-slowest year since 2012.

What that means: We’re off the bottom, not in a boom.

Jobs & confidence

Unemployment sat at 9.5% in September (down from 10.7% in July), and roughly 18,700 jobs were shed between April and September. Seasonal industries amplify those swings, which feeds into softer buyer confidence.

What that means: Some households are pressing pause, stretching timelines, or being choosier.

Listings & leverage

Active listings rose to 1,436 in September (+9.7% YoY). New listings aren’t flooding in; the bigger story is more investors exiting (tougher tenancy rules cited), which has slowly padded inventory. Even with that, the market is balanced: the sales-to-new-listings ratio was ~50%. Subject-free offers are rare again; vendor take-back mortgages and “subject to sale” deals are back on the table.

What that means: Buyers have options; sellers need precise pricing and flexible terms.

Price mix has shifted (a lot)

In 2016, homes under $600K were ~80% of the market. In 2025, they’re under 30%. That’s the affordability squeeze in one chart.

What that means: Entry-level buyers must hunt smarter (think: suites, townhomes, smaller footprints).

First-time buyers are still showing up

Roughly 30% of purchases this year are by first-time buyers—helped by longer amortizations and homes with suite income potential.

What that means: If you’re a first-timer, you’re not alone—and lenders/sellers are structuring deals to make it work.

Rates: a little relief, not a rescue

The Bank of Canada trimmed its policy rate 25 bps to 2.50% in September, and again to 2.25% in October as GDP contracted and national job losses rose. Bond yields suggest fixed mortgage rates won’t plunge; don’t expect a 2020-style surge.

What that means: Payments may ease a touch, but affordability will still depend on price, product, and term selection.

Construction pause, long-term tailwinds

August 2025 saw zero new housing starts in metro Kamloops—the first time on record (since 1990). Near-term, that supports pricing by limiting future supply. Medium-term, big projects—Highland Valley Copper (~$2B) and Trans Mountain expansion (~$450M in local construction spend)—support jobs and housing demand.

What that means: Short-term softness, long-term stability.

Jargon buster (quick translations)

• Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (~50%): Of every 10 homes listed, ~5 sold. Around 40–60% = balanced (neither buyers nor sellers dominate).

• Active Listings (1,436): How many homes are on the market right now—your available choices. Higher = more selection.

• Benchmark Price: A “typical home” price used to track trends (less noisy than averages). The report tracks these by property type and area as of September 2025.

• Vendor Take-Back (VTB): The seller acts like the bank for part of the price—useful when financing is tight. It’s showing up more in today’s balanced market.

So… what does this mean in Merritt?

Merritt sits inside the Kamloops & District board area, so these trends touch Merritt directly—but local flavor matters:

• More choice at the entry level: With inventory up district-wide and investors exiting in pockets, Merritt buyers are seeing better pickings in the sub-$700K range than they did a year ago. Suites and duplexes/townhomes are especially strategic for payment-offsetting income.

• First-time buyer window: With ~30% of purchasers being first-timers, Merritt’s lower price point (vs. Kamloops) plus suite potential can tip you from “almost” to “approved.” Longer amortizations help.

• Sellers: price to the market you have: Overpricing = longer days and chasing the market down. In a balanced market, clean presentation, right price, and flexible terms (consider VTBs or incentives) win.

…and in Kamloops specifically?

• Balanced, patient market: Buyers have time to think; subject-free is rare. Strong listings (sharp pricing + turnkey condition) still move. Others need price/terms creativity.

• Rate cuts won’t do all the lifting: Don’t bank on much lower fixed rates. Smart strategy = negotiate price, secure favorable terms, and explore rate-hold options early.

• Medium-term support: Major projects (Highland Valley Copper, TMX spend) should underpin jobs and stabilize demand through 2026, even if 2025 feels slow.

If you’re buying (Merritt or Kamloops)

• Get pre-approved and lock a rate; shop homes with potential income (suites).

• Be ready for conditional offers (inspection/financing) rather than bidding wars.

• Use the extra inventory to negotiate repairs, credits, or VTB structures when appropriate.

If you’re selling

• Price with the current comps, not last spring’s wish list.

• Fix the small stuff before you hit the market; clean, staged, and photo-ready wins.

• Consider flexible terms (longer possession, VTB, or “subject to sale”) to widen your buyer pool.

The bottom line

Q3 2025 shows a steadying, balanced market: more selection, cautious but active buyers, and sellers who succeed when they meet the market where it is. Merritt benefits from relatively better affordability; Kamloops carries the district’s big-city gravity and long-term project support. If you tailor strategy to your micro-market—and structure deals creatively—you can still win in 2025.